A RANGSIT University professor warned that three storms will be bring 130-200 mm more rain from tomorrow Oct. 11 to Oct. 18 and that while the floodwater this year is less than during the massive flooding in 2011 various activities such as raising road level, building barricades and filling land plots will lead to a domino effect causing some districts in Ang Thong and Ayutthaya provinces to sink, Siam Rath newspaper said today (Oct. 10).
In a Facebook post entitled “Three storms are coming, what will happen?” Dr. Seree Supharathit, director of the Centre for Climate Change and Disaster at Rangsit University, said the increased rainfall brought on by the three storms, Lionrock, Kompasu and a low pressure/depression, will raise the water level by < 0.50 metre.
The risk is that Pa Sak Jolasid Dam, which is already full, may need to drain more water. Thus communities that are already flooded in Ang Thong, Lop Buri, Saraburi, Suphan Buri, Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi must be prepared for an increased flow.
However the embanked area of Bangkok will not be affected but residents should watch out for flooding caused by possible additional drainage.
Dr. Seree said he and his team had been in the central region flooded areas for two weeks. During this time he saw that while the floodwater this year is less than in 2021, due to 20% less precipitation in the North, the floodwater level in many areas is either the same or higher.
To blame for this is the setting in of the “Glass Overflow Theory” caused by road elevation, construction of embankments, land filling at construction sites and the squeezing of rivers and canals without assessing the flooding pattern in watershed areas.
When water level is raised it results in higher pressure and could lead to dams breaking. It triggers a domino effect especially in parts of Ang Thong and Ayutthaya provinces. It also leads to conflicts between the state and the communities and among the communities themselves.
Dr. Seree mentioned that the areas most affected by rainfall increasing by over 200 mm are Northeastern region (upper, middle and lower parts around Oct. 13-18), the Eastern region (throughout the week, Oct. 10-18 ) and the Southwest coast (all week Oct. 10-18 Oct.).
He also warned that many small- to medium-size reservoirs are near full capacity and embankments in many places weak therefore people should be most vigilant the whole of next week as there will be heavy rain in many areas.
Top: A satellite image of Lionrock tropical storm today. Image: Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and published by Cyclostorm.com
Home Page: A map shows the movement of Storm Lionrock. Photo: National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting and published by Saigon Times