No major parties prepared for election in near future

By Thai Newsroom Reporters

NONE OF Thailand’s major parties, namely Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and Klatham, could barely afford to contest a general election in consequence of a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives in the foreseeable future because they would be largely caught off guard and unprepared to spend a great deal of campaign finance on it, partisan sources said today (Aug.20).

For that reason, de facto Bhumjaithai boss Newin Chidchob might probably change his mind about Klatham leader Thammanat Prompao whom he had bluntly denied the opportunity for the latter’s camp to jump onto the Bhumjaithai bandwagon of government following the nationwide election held earlier this year and would probably do otherwise in near future, given the possibility, however slim, that de facto Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra might ever decide to withdraw his camp from the Bhumjaithai-led coalition, according to the partisan sources who only spoke on condition of anonymity.

Thaksin would likely resolve to not pull the Pheu Thai out of the current coalition despite prevalent allegations launched against Prime Minister/Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul and several of his partisan colleagues in government of their having been one way or another involved in the 2024 senatorial vote-buying, rigging conspiracy and in a premeditated fraud over last year’s exams run by the Department of Local Administration for kickback-paying persons hired for jobs at local government units nationwide, among other wrongdoing scandals.

But if the de facto Pheu Thai boss did otherwise, the second largest coalition partner would be almost immediately replaced by the second largest opposition Klatham who have been patiently awaiting to get on board and be proportionately allocated cabinet portfolios.

The total of coalition lawmakers currently accounting for 290 could possibly drop to 274 if the 74 Pheu Thai MPs were finally told by Thaksin to withdraw and consequently replaced by the 58 Klatham MPs in addition to the 191 Bhumjaithai MPs plus dozens of others of splinter parties. Yet. the reduced number of coalition lawmakers would be fairly adequate for the Bhumjaithai-led government to continue to run the country.

“The last thing that Newin would do is to tell Anutin to dissolve the House to call a general election, given the circumstances under which he will not be well-prepared for partisan campaign finance next time around. In case that the Pheu Thai might leave for whatever conceivable reasons, the Klatham would be readily brought in as replacement with Anutin continuing to take the helm of government,” one partisan source said.

Neither could Thaksin’s and Thammanat’s camps readily cover their respective campaign finances if the House was dissolved in near future to be followed by a nationwide election in a two-month time as required by law.

Like most of his predecessors, it will be very unlikely for the Bhumjaithai prime minister to step down under pressure or in the face of critical, unresolved issues besieging his elected government and would ultimately prefer to dissolve the House to call a nationwide election instead.

Meanwhile, Thaksin would cringe at the possibility of being again outwitted by Thammanat after the Klatham leader had abruptly taken an about-face from being attached to a previous Pheu Thai-led coalition to joining a Bhumjaithai-led minority government following last year’s ouster of his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her elected premiership at the order of the Constitutional Court after she had despicably made a leaked cellphone chit chat with Cambodian leader Hun Sen which culminated in sporadic, armed conflict along the common border between the Thai and Cambodian forces.

The de facto Bhumjaithai boss would have no choice other than to bring the awaiting Klatham into the coalition government, given the slim possibility, as opposed to the large unlikelihood, of the de facto Pheu Thai boss making up his mind to pull his camp out of it. Besides, Newin and Thaksin seemed to share suspicions over Thammanat’s unpredictable, challenging part in their behind-the-scenes power play, according to the partisan sources.

In the meantime, all the 74 Pheu Thai MPs would likely join other coalition lawmakers in casting yea votes of confidence for Anutin and any other Bhumjaithai members of cabinet following censure debate in the House speculated as soon as in the first half of next month because Thaksin would ultimately prefer to play it safe in the face of multiple legal battles in which he has been painstakingly engaging.

“Thaksin would simply tell all Pheu Thai MPs to cast votes of confidence alongside other coalition MPs for Anutin following an approaching censure debate. They would not afford to abstain from voting, let alone vote against him with their boss’s political survival being put at stake,” the partisan source said.

The prime minister will be by no means legally empowered to dissolve the House and call a general election after a censure motion against him or any other members of cabinet has been formally lodged at parliament.

Neither would the prime minister be legally allowed to do so at a later date if he was automatically stripped of power due to a simple majority of no-confidence votes among the elected lawmakers.

The yet-unsettled lawsuits filed against Thaksin refer to his six-month-long, fake-out episode in which certain senior government officials could probably be found guilty in court of perpetrating duty-negligence and misconduct by allegedly doing undue favours for the de facto Pheu Thai boss after he had apparently flouted the law and taken legal loopholes to stay at Police Hospital in lieu of a prison to otherwise serve a curtailed, one-year jail term upon his 2023 return from self-exile abroad, a prolonged lese majeste lawsuit lodged against him in the Appellation Court by the Office of the Attorney-General after it had been lifted by the Criminal Court and a sum of 17 billion baht in arrears for personal income tax which he has owed the Department of Revenue, plus his personal burdens to manage a sought-after homecoming of his sister/depose prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra from self-exile overseas.

Thaksin who had been finally returned to jail and literally spent eight months behind bars until he was released under royal pardon earlier this year has unusually remained tightlipped over the current political affairs.

CAPTIONS:

De facto Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra, left in above photo and right in Front Page photo, and de facto Bhumjaithai boss Naewin Chidchob. Above image – MGR Online, Front Page image – Naewna

First insert: Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, right, and Klatham leader Thammanat Prompao. Photo – PPTVHD36

Second insert: De facto Pheu Thai boss Thaksin Shinawatra with an image of Klatham leader Thammanat Prompao inset. Photo – PPTVHD36

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