THE Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said today (July 19) two studies predicting the potential spread of coronavirus forecast a rise to 20,000 and 30,000 patients a day respectively before declining, Sanook.com said.
CCSA’s spokesman Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin said data collected and analysed by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nuanchan Singkran, of the Faculty of Environment and Resources, Mahidol University, from Jan. 12, 2020 to date found a median level of approximately 9,695-24,204 cases/day, with lower level being 9,018-12,605 cases/day and the upper level, the worst-case scenario, reaching 31,997 cases/ day. Currently the number of daily infections is still at the lowest level.
Another study carried out by the Bank of Ayudhya, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) used as a reference, found that if vaccination rates improved, the number of infections will be at that level of 10,000 cases/ day and will begin to decline in August and September.
This study estimates 20,000 cases/ day in the worst-case scenario. If the current situation continues without there being additional factors coming in, a maximum of 15,000 cases/ day is projected for August and this then would gradually decrease.
Top: Dr. Taweesilp talking to the Press recently. Photo: Naewna
Top: An artist’s rendering of coronavirus spreading in Bangkok. Image: Thai Rath