By Reuters – published by CNA and Thai Newsroom
SYDNEY: Share markets surged in Asia on Monday (June 15) while the dollar slipped and oil prices tumbled as a tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran promised to ease inflationary pressures globally and lessen the need for higher interest rates.
In Thailand the SET Index closed the morning session at 1,598.33 points, up 5.92 points (+0.37%) after opening at 1,607.89 points, touching a high of 1,609.71 points and slipping to 1,592.73 points, with a turnover of 57.16 billion baht.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media early on Monday that a deal had been struck, while President Donald Trump said the agreement included opening the vital Strait of Hormuz, though without giving details.
Trump will meet with Middle Eastern leaders and attend a working session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a G7 summit in France this week.
Iran said traffic through the strait would be regulated by it and Oman, a potential blow to the rules of free trade and suggesting there might be a toll of some sort on shipping.
“The lack of details, especially on freedom of shipping, is a concern but not one that should constrain markets today as the surge in risk appetite plays out,” said Sean Callow, a senior FX analyst at ITC Markets.
“The prospect of a sustained fall in energy prices changes the conversation for central banks just ahead of a flurry of policy decisions.”
The news will be a relief for the crowd of central banks meeting this week, easing some of the pressure to tighten policy to head off an energy-driven rise in inflationary expectations.
Markets had already priced in a likely deal, but the confirmation was enough to send Brent crude falling 4.7 percent to US$83.24 a barrel, well away from its May peak of US$126.41.
US crude slid 5.5 percent to US$80.16 a barrel but was still above the US$67 level it traded at before the war began.
“We see Brent oil futures falling to US$80 by the end of the year, assuming the strait does not close again,” said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy analyst at CBA.
“Our forecast implicitly assumes that oil and refined product exports can resume quickly through the Strait of Hormuz, but this view carries considerable uncertainty tied to the damage to oil and refinery assets.”
The prospect of cheaper oil will be a boon to Japan, which is a net importer of energy. The Nikkei climbed 5.4 percent. South Korea’s red-hot market gained 5.6 percent, while Chinese blue chips firmed 1.4 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.5 percent.
Relief for central banks
In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both rose 1.7 percent, while FTSE futures added 0.7 percent.
S&P 500 futures climbed 1.1 percent, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.8 percent amid a general surge in risk assets.
Central banks are due to meet in the US, UK, Japan, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Russia this week, with Japan considered the one likely to lift rates this time.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent on Wednesday at Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting.
The statement, economic projections and news conference will be scrutinised for any signals of the Fed dropping its easing bias as officials grow more hawkish on inflation risks.
Investors were quick to trim the chance of a hike this year, with December futures edging up four ticks, while a move as early as October is now priced around 30 percent.
Treasuries rallied on hopes that oil prices would now fall sustainably and lessen the upside risks for inflation. Yields on 2-year notes dropped 6 basis points to 4.02 percent.
The drop in yields and general improvement in risk pulled the US dollar broadly lower, with the euro rising 0.4 percent to US$1.1608, while sterling rose 0.3 percent to US$1.3446.
CAPTIONS:
Top – A man walks in front of an electronic screen displaying Japan’s Nikkei stock prices quotation board inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan on April 27, 2026. File photo: Reuters/Issei Kato and published by CNA
Front Page – A man looks at a stock quotation board showing the Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, on June 15, 2026. Photo: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon and published by CNA
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