IMF: Global food crisis hitting 260 million poor people hard

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) said at the 2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings taking place in Bangkok that a global food crisis is exacerbating the plight of 260 million poor people, with concerns raised over the impact of El Niño and rising fertiliser and energy costs, PPTVHD36 said today (Oct. 15).

This is a compounding food crisis with El Niño, along with high costs for fertilisers and energy, weighing on the economy and affecting millions of poor people worldwide.

Mr. Rodrigo Valdés, director of IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, speaking ahead of a panel discussion titled “Food Security in an Age of Shock” noted that the world has faced repeated food price shocks in recent years. These have been driven by conflicts, disruptions to trade and transport systems, extreme weather events, and volatility in the costs of energy and fertilisers.

Global food prices rose again in August, reaching their highest level since late 2022—though they remain approximately 20% below that peak. Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, prices for rice have surged by 50%, wheat by 37%, and soybeans by 21%.

Meanwhile, the ongoing El Niño phenomenon is already having a severe impact, with the situation expected to intensify further into next year. Compounded by rapid global warming, many regions, including the Sahel, East Africa, and parts of Central America, are now facing water shortages and rising temperatures. This includes regions in South Asia and Southeast Asia; for instance, Niger—in Africa—has experienced its lowest rainfall levels since at least 1995, while Indonesia has seen its highest number of extreme heat days in 30 years.

However, the impact of El Niño varies by country. While some areas may suffer significant losses in agricultural output, others may be minimally affected or even benefit. Consequently, global food production is unlikely to undergo any substantial change as a result of this phenomenon.

IMF is, therefore, more concerned about the climate-related impacts at the national and local levels. When combined with high costs for fuel and fertilisers, these conditions could drive up local food prices, exacerbate food insecurity, reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and weaken government fiscal positions.

IMF estimates that temperature anomalies alone are causing a decline of approximately 0.5% in the GDP of affected countries.

This situation further compounds existing, severe food insecurity, a challenge currently faced by around 260 million people worldwide. Because food accounts for a large share of household expenditure among the poor, even localised increases in food prices can rapidly and severely impact people’s livelihoods.

Valdés further explains that food markets differ from oil markets—the latter being highly integrated on a global scale. Food markets, by contrast, vary based on crop type, supply chains, and local conditions.

This makes the impact of food price fluctuations more uneven, though prices often tend to revert to their previous levels over time. The impact of many food price shocks tends to subside within about a year, as local supply disruptions, weather conditions, or harvest cycles return to normal.

Nevertheless, both oil and food markets share a common reality: countries with robust social protection systems are better equipped to provide rapid support to vulnerable groups—through targeted cash transfers, school meal programmes, and other forms of assistance—while maintaining better control over fiscal costs.

Consequently, proactive preparation is essential as such systems for beneficiary targeting, databases of aid recipients, payment mechanisms, and digital identity verification should all be established well before a crisis occurs.

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Top and Front Page: IMF Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department Mr. Rodrigo Valdés. Photo – PPTVHD36

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