By Thai Newsroom Reporters
THREE MAJOR PARTIES, namely the People’s, the Bhumjaithai and the Pheu Thai, will likely sweep an estimated 400 MP seats combined in both constituency-based and party-listed modes of the Feb.8 election, prominent academics predicted over the weekend.
The trio of major parties contesting the nationwide election are more or less anticipated to grab a combined 400 MP seats out of a total of 500, including 400 in constituency-based mode and 100 in party-listed mode whilst some 100 others will likely be split among all other contesting camps, according to NIDA’s Political & Development Strategies Project Director Pichai Ratanadilok na Phuket and Chulalongkorn University’s political scientist Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee.
Pichai forecast that the reformist People’s will likely win a range of 150 to 180 MP seats, compared to a range of 120 to 130 MP seats to be secured by the ultra-conservative Bhumjaithai, currently core of the caretaker government under de facto party boss Newin Chidchob, and a range of 80 to 90 by the neo-conservative Pheu Thai under de facto party boss/inmate Thaksin Shinawatra.
But Siripan predicted that the People’s will get some 150 MP seats whilst the Bhumjaithai will grab some 140 and the Pheu Thai some 110 in both electoral modes combined.
That compared to the 2023 election in which the People’s won 151 MP seats, including 112 in constituency-based mode and 39 in party-listed mode, whilst the Pheu Thai grabbed 141 MP seats – 112 in constituency-based mode and 29 in party-listed mode, and the Bhumjaithai 71 MP seats – 68 in constituency-based mode and three in party-listed mode.
The relatively small camps such as the likes of the ultra-conservative Klatham, currently a partner of the Bhumjaithai-led caretaker government under de facto party boss Thammanat Prompao, and the Old School conservative Democrats headed by former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will roughly get 40 MP seats each whilst splinter parties such as the Prachachart headed by former House speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha and the divided Palang Pracharath, among others, will get the rest, according to the noted academics.
In constituency-based mode with the total 400 MP seats up for grabs, the contestants running under the tickets of the People’s whose leader Nattapong Ruengpanyawut is one of a trio of partisan contestants for prime minister will likely be elected mostly in the northern and eastern regions and the provinces geographically adjacent to Bangkok as well as the capital city’s constituencies whilst those vying under the banners of the Bhumjaithai whose leader/Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is contesting to remain in power after the Feb.8 election is anticipated to be elected mostly in the lower-northeastern, central and southern regions and those of the Pheu Thai where a trio of partisan contenders for prime minister includes Thaksin’s nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat is expected to get elected mostly in the northern and upper-northeastern regions.
Siripan pointed out that an estimated 65 ex-MPs, mostly attached to the “Big Houses” in the provinces nationwide, have skipped over from their former parties such as the Pheu Thai, the Ruam Thai Sang Chart and the Palang Pracharath to Newin’s camp to seek re-election though some might probably fail to find their way back to parliament.
However, the Democrats and the Klatham are more or less speculated to grab some MP seats in southern constituencies in addition to those anticipated to be secured by the Bhumjaithai, the Prachachart and the People’s.
In party-listed mode, the People’s will likely get most of the total 100 MP seats, followed by Thaksin’s camp and Newin’s camp respectively, the academics forecast.
Pichai predicted that the People’s, the Bhumjaithai and the Democrats will likely win more MP seats in party-listed mode whilst the Pheu Thai might probably get relatively less than in the previous election.
CAPTIONS:
Above- People’s leader Nattapong Ruengpanyawut campaigning in Kanchanaburi. Photo – Thai Rath
First insert – Caretaker Prime Minister and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul addressing a rally at Lumpini Park last night, Jan. 30, 2026. Photo – Naewna
Second insert – Pheu Thai prime minister candidate Yodchanan Wongsawut at a rally in Chiang Rai yesterday, Jan. 30, 2026. Photo – Naewna
Also read:
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People’s most popular, Nattapong most favourite for PM: Rajabhat Poll
Democrats tipped to get nearly 40 MP seats, mostly from southern constituencies
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Klatham to emerge as third largest party, not fourth: Thammanat
Pheu Thai launches nine-millionaires-a-day campaign
Four ex-MPs vie against one another in Lopburi constituency
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