Analysis

Threat of overtourism returns as Thailand, China sign total visa-free travel deal, as of March 1

 

THAILAND and China have signed an agreement for the citizens of the two countries to get totally visa-free access, as of March 1, 2024. The move will set off a renewed boom in Chinese visitors and help the kingdom exceed its original arrival targets for 2024 beyond eight million for Chinese nationals and 35 million in total. It will also lead to the renewed threat of overtourism and all its associated social, cultural and environmental problems.

The agreement was signed on Jan. 28 by Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi, who is also a Member of the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, and Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara. It is a critical part of a broader plan to mark the 50th anniversary of Thailand-China diplomatic relations in 2025 with a sweeping upgrade of economic, political, cultural and transportation linkages.

The agreement allows citizens of the two countries a visa-free stay for up to 30 days, and a cumulative period of stays not exceeding 90 days in any 180-day period, except for the purposes of residing or engaging in employment, study, media activities or other activities that require prior approval from competent authorities of the other country.

In his remarks to the media, Mr. Wang Yi said, “This will surely bring our people-to-people exchanges to a new height. There will be a big increase in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand. We also welcome friends from Thailand to feel the vitality and vibrancy of China and the hospitality of the Chinese people. China and Thailand are one family. It’s important that our two peoples forge closer friendships and stronger bonds, and embrace a better life.”

He added, “Over the past half a century, our bilateral relationship has withstood the test of the changing international landscape and grown from strength to strength. China always sees Thailand as a priority in its diplomacy with neighbouring countries, and supports Thailand in following a development path that suits its national conditions. We appreciate Thailand’s firm commitment to the one-China principle and its active support for the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative.”

Noting that China is Thailand’s largest trading partner and biggest source of foreign investment, Mr. Wang Yi said the two sides had agreed to speed up the development of the China-Thailand Railway, fully implement the China-Laos-Thailand Connectivity Development Corridor Outlook, and open the central line of the Trans-Asian Railway as soon as possible. They also signed agreements to boost export of Thai poultry meat and podocarpus plants to China. Chinese companies will boost their investments in Thailand, especially in new energy vehicles, digital economy and green development.

Mr. Wang Yi indicated that economic growth had to be accompanied by a broader peace at the political and geopolitical level.

He said, “Faced with a changing and turbulent international environment, both sides should stay committed to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, jointly uphold the hard-won peace and stability of our region, and oppose zero-sum, win-or-lose political games. Committed to true multilateralism and open regionalism, our two sides will work with other Asean  countries to build a peaceful, safe and secure, prosperous, beautiful and amicable home, speed up the COC consultation, and jointly uphold Asean centrality and the Asean-led regional architecture.

“China supports Thailand in holding the next Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and Leaders’ Meeting, and in developing the Mekong-Lancang community with a shared future of peace and prosperity. With the upcoming 50th anniversary of China-Thailand diplomatic relations, our bilateral relationship will come to a new historical starting point…..China is ready to work with Thailand to jointly deepen the building of a more stable, prosperous and sustainable China-Thailand community with a shared future, and provide more stability and certainty to a changing and turbulent world.”

In turn, Thai Foreign Minister Mr. Parnpree hailed the agreement as “a symbol of our long-lasting friendship, trust and confidence, which is evidenced at every level. I am certain that travel between our two people, whether for tourism or business, will become more convenient, and help to stimulate the tourism industry in both countries.””

He said that as part of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, Thailand and China “are committed to promoting trade, investment, security and cooperation on culture and tourism, to facilitating connectivity, people-to-people relations, as well as to advancing cooperation in various multilateral and regional forums. We also exchanged views on current key regional and international situations impacting geopolitics and our region, including the situation in Myanmar, the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East, among others, and we appreciated the significance of Thai-Chinese relations to the stability and prosperity of our region.”

Mr. Parnpree said “many more activities will be organised in 2025, both in Thailand and in China, with the participation of our public.”

China is by far Thailand’s most important source of visitor arrivals, roughly 25% of the 40 million arrivals in pre-Covid 2019. Arrivals were making a rapid recovery in 2023 until Oct. when they got hit by the shooting of Chinese tourists in a popular Bangkok shopping mall by a Thai teenager with suspected mental health issues.

After a series of rapid-fire crisis management and market recovery measures taken in the immediate aftermath of that shooting, arrivals began climbing again to end 2023 with 3.52 million, short of the original target of four million. According to Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Mrs. Thapanee Kiatphaibool, Chinese visitor arrivals totalled 401,687 between Jan. 1-26 2024, or roughly 15.8% of the total 2.53 million arrivals in that period.

The visa-free move will pave the way for a robust celebration of the Chinese New Year Festival 2024 to be held at Yaowarat Road in the Chinatown area of Bangkok between February 10-11, 2024. The TAT had originally forecast that the festival would generate more than 34 billion baht in tourism income, based on 2 million domestic visitors and 995,000 foreign (Chinese and non-Chinese tourists). Tourists just from China alone for the Chinese New Year were projected at 177,000 (+358% over 2023) generating 6,213 million baht (+366%) in tourism income.

However, there is likely to be a significant downside to the rapid recovery after the visa-free agreement takes effect.

This will include price hikes of tourism products and services across the board, safety and security issues related to petty crime, scams and fraud as well as destination management issues, especially overcrowding of beaches and visitor attractions. Thailand also does not have enough Chinese-speaking guides. It will also drive up the real estate market and trigger an inflationary downward spiral.

CAPTIONS:

Top and Front Page: Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi and Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara at today’s (Jan. 28) signing of a total visa-free travel agreement.

Second insert: Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi

Third insert: Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara. Photos courtesy of Thai Foreign Ministry


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