KIATNAKIN Bank’s latest analysis projects that the current coronavirus lockdown could last at least three months leading to another year of economic contraction with GDP for 2021 likely to slide from projected 1.5% to only 0.5%, Amarin TV said today (July 27).
As the lockdown will likely stretch for three months or more before the current Covid surge subsides, this will have a severe impact on the Thai economy through decreased consumption and investment.
Statistics of the outbreak in other countries show that on average it lasts 120 to 150 days, KKP Research said, but added that in Thailand’s case the delay in procuring vaccines could lead to the current Covid wave continuing for six months.
The number of daily cases is expected to peak in August and gradually drop to below 2,000 in the fourth quarter.
The delayed vaccine procurement that led to lockdown measures which limits economic activity has a huge economic cost.
Moreover the government may have to further strengthen the lockdown if the current Covid wave cannot be controlled due to inadequate amounts of vaccines and the healthcare system being stretched to the limit which could then plunge the economy into the negative territory.
KKP Research urged the government to speed up implementing additional measures, improve the lockdown, accelerate the detection of infection, obtain quality vaccines, prepare a relief package for the public and coordinate fiscal and monetary measures to address the disruption of the economy.
Rare images of almost empty roads in Bangkok during the current lockdown. Top Photo: NNT, Home Page photo: Sanook.com