LED by sharp drops in its two top source-markets, Thailand ended the January- March first quarter with 9.5 million arrivals, an anemic 1.91% increase over the 9.37 million in the first quarter of 2024. Most disturbing is the downward trend from a high of 3,709,102 arrivals in January to 3,119,445 in February and 2,720,457 in March.
China, still suffering from the after-effects of the scam centre scandals, has plunged from 662,779 arrivals in January to 297,113 in March. Neighbouring Malaysia dropped significantly in March due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan (see full chart of arrivals from 91 countries below).
This month, April, was widely projected to be a revival month thanks to the popular Songkran New Year festivities. It has already been hit by the March 28 earthquake and the April 2 Trump “tariffquake”.
The April-September period is low season. The long-stay European market declines but in recent years has been compensated by the short-stay intra-Asia/Pacific markets and the long-stay Middle East. That is looking less likely this year, thanks to the economic impact of the “tariffquake.”
The Chinese market, too, is unlikely to pick up robustly. There are clear indications that China is following the Japanese example and shifting from being an outbound market to an inbound destination.
Thai industry analysts focus excessively, and mistakenly, on the top-producing markets. In fact, the scale of the decline is across the board, from long-haul to short-haul markets, even from neighbouring countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia. Of the 91 countries listed in full in the chart below, 65 countries reported declines.
All told, the pre-quakes target of 39 million arrivals for 2025 is a write-off. The Tourism Authority of Thailand is now looking at 36-37 million.
Recovery prospects are clouded by the fact that Thailand is now an ageing destination desperately trying to reinvent itself by putting old wine in a new bottle. It is suffering from over-exposure and facing formidable competition from equally attractive, better value for money and more competitive destinations such as Sri Lanka, Vietnam and even neighbouring Cambodia.
The constant barrage of bad publicity about the recurring crises is not helping.
The country is looking to India, another short-haul, mass-tourism market, to prop up the numbers. The consequence is that destinations such as Pattaya are being flooded with Indian visitors on low-cost package tours, many of them males travelling alone in search of the obvious.
Much hope is now being pinned on the legalisation of casinos. But its perceived economic and commercial benefits are on a collision course with those citing its multiple long-term negative socio-cultural impacts, the lack of confidence in enforcement mechanisms and contradiction with the country’s Buddhist values.
Like the building collapse, Thailand as a whole and Thai tourism specifically are facing some serious “structural problems” which require deep introspection and soul-searching solutions.
That level of intellect has yet to emerge within the living-in-denial travel & tourism industry, which is well-known for sweeping issues under the carpet.
CAPTION:
Top and Front Page: Tourists enjoying themselves in Thailand. Photos: Amarin TV
Remarl: P = Preliminary
Figures
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports (As of Apr. 3, 2025)
Also read: Trump’s ‘tariffquake’ marks the end of US leadership globally
Nirmal Ghosh’s new book “Backlash” reveals why Trump now faces a “Counter- Backlash”
Markets sink as Trump’s tariffs roil global trading system
Thaksin threatens coalition partners to vote for casino bill or be kicked out
Many buildings damaged because pillars not reinforced with steel: Academic
Unpaid electrical company boss reveals details of collapsed building
