A SURVEY shows that border trade will likely continue slowing down this year being impacted by the tension at Thai-Cambodian border and higher transportation costs with over 80 billion baht lost over the last six months,PPTVHD26 said today (Jan. 28).
The survey on Thailand’s Foreign Border Trade Sentiment Index (FBI) for 2026 conducted by Institute of Trade Strategy, in collaboration with the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, combining both exports and imports, yielded an average score of 38.7 for the short term (January 2026), indicating a poor situation as the result is below 50.
Similarly, the medium-term FBI (first six months of 2026) averaged 43.1, also indicating a poor situation.
However long-term FBI (entire year 2026) averaged 47.5, suggesting improvement.
Border trade in 2025 is projected to be valued at 525.833 billion baht, a decrease of 12.7%, contrasting with cross-border exports, which are projected to reach 544.719 billion baht, an increase of 22%.
A forecast of Thailand’s border and cross-border trade in 2026 foresees a potential slowdown due to border tension and higher transportation costs. Exports are projected to reach 1.097 trillion baht, an increase of 2.56%, while imports will likely total 924.745 billion baht, an increase of 4.57%.
Dr. Thanawat Pholvichai, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s president, said reasons for the slowdown include border instability and security, higher transportation costs from route changes, stricter border control regulations and transportation limitations, competing low-priced goods from neighbouring markets, natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes, corruption, smuggling of illegal goods and tax evasion.
Negative factors affecting border and cross-border trade in 2026 include continued enforcement of Thai-Malaysian border trade controls that hinder trade flow; continued stagnation of Thai-Cambodian border trade due to ongoing conflicts that impact border economy; and the problem of counterfeit goods and smuggling that requires increased control which affects the ease of border trade.
Furthermore, geographical risks along the border, particularly the intense fighting in Myanmar, undermine the confidence of both Thai and foreign investors.
The continuous and rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, faster than other currencies in the region, affects the competitiveness of Thai goods in the market. Finally, smuggling and the misrepresentation of origin of goods impact the credibility of Thai products necessitating stringent inspection.
CAPTIONS:
Above – Sadao border checkpoint is a crucial gateway between Thailand and Malaysia. Photo – MCOT
Insert – Dr. Thanawat Pholvichai and his team stating the results of the survey at a press conference. Photo – University of Thai Chamber of Commerce and published by PPTVHD36
Front Page – Trucks carrying goods to Myanmar. Photo – Thai Rath
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