By Thai Newsroom Reporters
AS MANY AS 500,000 REFUGEES might probably flee armed conflict between Myanmar government forces and ethnic rebel groups across the Thai-Myanmar border into Thai territory during anticipated dry-season offensive early next year.
Former deputy National Security Council secretary-general Pongsakorn Rodchombhu said over the weekend a range of 350,000 to 500,000 refugees, including Myanmar nationals and ethnic minorities, might probably move en masse across the common border from the war-torn country into Thailand’s western and northern provinces during dry-season offensive which might probably last from the next few months until the middle of next year in response to the ethnic rebel groups’ siege and occupation of Myanmar’s army and government positions.
The armed ethnic rebels have reportedly laid siege around Tatmadaw army units, severed many of their logistic routes and supplies and intermittently launched skirmishes on government troops.
Myanmar helicopters and other combat aircraft would likely increase their daily sorties in the anticipated offensive to pound the rebels’ positions including those in high terrains in remote regions, prompting the rebel groups to strike back with more anti-aircraft artillery units and surface-to-air missiles, the former deputy NSC chief said.
Meanwhile, an estimated 20,000 Myanmar army troops and government officials have reportedly so far deserted and fled the chronic armed conflict into India and Bangladesh across Myanmar’s northwestern border from Rakhine state, Pongsakorn said.
The Tatmadaw forces are calculated to only have some 70,000 combat-ready, regular troops, plus an estimated 80,000 militia men and reservists for the time being, he said.
According to the former deputy NSC chief, the sporadic fighting in Myanmar which started over the last few months was not the same as in the past decades because, he said, this time many Myanmar villagers have been reacting in civil disobedience to coup leader-turned-prime minister Myint Aung Hlaing’s regime in Naypyidaw.
In the meantime, he suggested that Thailand prepare to open a “humanitarian corridor” in which those refugees could be taken care of in an extendable period of time instead of being driven back across the border after they have fled fighting inside Myanmar, regardless of whether they may be Myanmar nationals or ethnic minorities.
Thailand may call on international agencies to resume humanitarian aid for the refugees provided temporary shelters in this country as had been the case over the last decades, he said.
CAPTIONS:
Top: A member of the insurgent Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) rescues civilians trapped amid airstrikes, during a battle to take over Loikaw in Kayah state, Myanmar, on November 14, 2023. Photo: Reuters/Stringer and published by CNA
First insert: Former deputy National Security Council secretary-general Pongsakorn Rodchombhu. Photo: Matichon
Second insert: A view of a relief camp where people who fled Myanmar stay, at the border village of Zokhawthar, Champhai district, in India’s northeastern state of Mizoram on Nov. 15, 2023. Photo: Reuters/Chanchinmawia and published by CNA
Front Page: Namhsan in northeastern Shan state is the latest town to fall to Ta’ang National Liberation Army fighters since they launched a surprise offensive against Myanmar’s junta in October. Photo: AFP and published by CNA
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